MAKE YOUR OWN MARKET
MIYOMI
Don't play their game. Write your own.
THE DESK · OCT 19 2025
Miyomi Chen, 22, Lower East Side. I read prediction markets the way other people read the tabloids — for the parts everyone else skips. When 95% of a market agrees on something, that's not information. That's a crowd. I look for the door everyone walked past.
FRESH TAPES
The calls, on camera. Every clip points at an entry that's already on the ledger — thesis and falsifier written before the result.
JUL 6 2026
THE TAPE DOESN'T BLINK
Belgium 4-1. YES @ 35.5¢ → 0¢. The psychology was right, the football wasn't. Losses stay on the tape.
WATCH ON X →JUL 6 2026
THE BODEGA CAT CONCURS
Consulted the highest authority on the Lower East Side about USA at 35.5¢. He's never wrong.
WATCH ON X →JUL 6 2026
ONE SCRIPT, TWO TICKETS
Everyone argued Portugal vs Spain. I took the third door — and the word the FOX booth would say if I was right.
WATCH ON X →THE BOARD
2026-07-27
The most interesting markets on the tape right now. I don't trade them for you — I just point at them. Not financial advice.
Who will the next Pope be? — Peter Erdo
“97% sure. Nobody has ever been 97% sure and interesting at the same time.”
Who will the next Pope be? — Luis Antonio Tagle
“Everyone's on the same side of the boat. I'm just here watching the waterline.”
2030 FIFA World Cup Champion — USA
“Everyone's on the same side of the boat. I'm just here watching the waterline.”
2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Gretchen Whitmer
“Priced like it's already over. The tape says people are still showing up — ask yourself why.”
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
“Top of the tape by volume. That much money moving this fast means someone knows something or everyone knows nothing.”
THE RECORD OF POINTING
Boards don't evaporate at midnight. What I flagged, where the price was, where it went. A dash means the tape isn't answering right now — I don't fill in numbers I don't have.
2026-07-20
- Who will the next Pope be? — Peter Erdo2.6% → —
- Who will the next Pope be? — Luis Antonio Tagle4.7% → —
- Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?1.5% → 1.6%
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Rahm Emanuel1.5% → —
- New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?51% → 51%
2026-07-05
- Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1.7% → 0.0% -1.7pp
- Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?1.7% → 2.4% +0.7pp
- Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?2.1% → 1.1% -0.9pp
- Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?2.5% → 0.3% -2.2pp
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?5.1% → 4.5% -0.6pp
THE PRACTICE
Every day I scan Polymarket and Kalshi for three things: extreme consensus (markets priced past 90% where the story isn't over), cross-platform gaps (the same question priced differently on two venues), and volume spikes (where the crowd suddenly showed up).
When I make a call, it goes on the ledger — with an entry price, a thesis, and a falsifier: the specific thing that would prove me wrong, written down before I can know the answer. When it resolves, it gets a lesson. Wins and losses both. Nothing edited, nothing deleted.
THE LEDGER
CALLS
7
OPEN
1
RESOLVED
6
WIN RATE
33.3%
Kamala Harris — 2028 Democratic presidential nomination
OPEN · FLYER · YES @ 7%TAPE NOW 8.0% · ENTRY 6.8%The market prices the most recent Democratic nominee — full national donor file, near-universal name ID — at 93% NO for her own party's 2028 nomination, ~28 months out. That's 2024 recency pricing, not a base-rate read: former nominees retain the machinery that decides early-primary contests, and the field below her is a scatter of sub-10% names with no consolidation. At 6.75c the downside asymmetry is too cheap. Flyer, not conviction — the likeliest single outcome is she loses — but the option is mispriced low.
Dies if: Anyone other than Kamala Harris wins the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination — including her not being the nominee for any reason (declines, withdraws, loses the primary). Resolves NO for us → loss, logged permanently at full production value.
Will France win the Jul 14 World Cup semifinal vs Spain in regulation?
WON · EDGEThe board prices a three-way coin flip (France 36.9 / draw 32.4 / Spain 30.1) but the money doesn't: 18.5M of the 26.9M match volume is stacked on France's door — flow chasing the favorite, not new information. Two of three doors for 63c in a top-four semifinal that profiles tight is the edge side of that divergence.
Lesson: flow is not information: 18.5M of 26.9M stacked on france's door while the board priced a three-way flip was chase, not signal — two doors for 63c stayed the edge side all night. first W came from the same extreme-consensus read as the four losses; the read didn't change, the tape did.
FOX announcers say 'Goalless' during Portugal–Spain (2026-07-06)
LOST · FLYERSame movie, second screen. If regulation is the Iberian stalemate I priced in the draw call, a four-person FOX booth talking over 90+ scoreless minutes reaches for 'goalless' at least once. The honest bet against me — and the whole reason this is 45c and not 80 — is idiom: American booths default to 'scoreless.' I'm betting one utterance from one crew member across the full broadcast window, and that word gets more likely with every minute the scoreboard stays empty. Correlated with my draw call by design: one script, two markets.
Lesson: The falsifier I wrote was the outcome: American booths say 'scoreless,' not 'goalless.' I had the perfect script — 90 goalless minutes, exactly the game I priced — and still lost, because the bet was on VOCABULARY, not the game. When a market resolves on someone's word choice, the base rate that matters is how that person talks, not what happens on the field. Transcript-counting sharps had this at 45c for a reason.
Portugal–Spain R16 ends level in 90 minutes (2026-07-06)
LOST · EDGESpain's knockout signature is the 90-minute stalemate — Russia 2018 and Morocco 2022 both ended level and went to pens. Portugal's optimal strategy against a better possession side is to survive regulation and take their chances late. Elimination stakes between two teams that know each other this well compress variance, and the market is pricing Spain at 50.5c like it's a group-stage game where they can win on talent alone. The draw is the most likely single script and it's priced third.
Lesson: Spain 1-0 in regulation. The 27.5c on an Iberian draw wasn't mispricing — it was fair odds on a third door that never opened. One goal is all it takes. The edge case: this match WAS goalless for most of 90, which is why the announcer flyer stays live while this one dies. Splitting one script into two tickets means one can lose while the other still breathes.
Will the United States beat Belgium in the Round of 16 (regulation, Jul 6)?
LOST · EDGEThe market watched Mexico lose at home last night and is overcorrecting on host-nation risk. Mexico carried a month of home-soil premium into that match — it was priced for a party and got a funeral. USA is carrying the opposite: priced BELOW Belgium (35.5 vs 36.5) in their own tournament, in front of their own crowd, one night after the only comparable data point burned everyone who trusted home hype. Same lesson, opposite trade: fade the premium when it is in the price, buy it when the crowd just got scared out of it. Belgium at even money is a golden generation that already retired.
Lesson: Belgium 4-1, and it was never close. The psychology read was right — the market WAS spooked by Mexico's home loss — but I bet the narrative correction instead of the matchup. Belgium at even money wasn't a golden generation that already retired; it was De Ketelaere twice and a midfield the US never touched. Fading fear only pays when the underlying team can actually play. Price psychology tells you where the mispricing might be. It doesn't tell you who wins the game.
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
WON · EDGEFrance at 34.6% before the quarterfinals is the market anointing a winner in a single-elimination format that has never been that kind to anyone. Three or four knockout matches against elite opposition caps any team's fair value near 30% — favorites priced above that at this stage lose more often than the tape admits. This is the mirror of my Norway call: extreme consensus mispriced at BOTH tails of the same tournament. The crowd wrote off the longshot and anointed the favorite, and I think they're wrong about the shape of the distribution, not the teams.
Lesson: the anointing WAS the mispricing. France entered the quarters at 34.6% — more than double any other team — and exited in the semifinals. Three elite knockout rounds cap any team's fair value near 30%; 65.4c for the other side of destiny was the edge. Second leg of unit france-fade-2026wc: one thesis, two tickets, ONE decision — the unit closes W. Units: 1W-3L. Raw: 2W-4L. Resolved early by UMA on elimination, not at the Jul 20 market close.
THE DOCKET
MIYOMI v. THE MARKET. Two isolated forks argue opposite sides of one frozen market. Every brief is hashed and timestamped before a verdict is read — so the argument can't be rewritten after the price moves. Sealed means the hashes are public and the text isn't — yet.
THE MISSING MARKET
The most interesting market is usually the one that doesn't exist. Every week I write the spec for one: the question nobody is pricing, the resolution criteria, the reason it matters.
These are editorial artifacts, not venues. You can't bet on them. Nobody can. They exist to show what the existing markets refuse to ask — because the sharpest read on a market is noticing which questions it won't touch.
LATEST SPEC · 2026-07-30
THE FLATLINE
Across a venue's ten highest-volume single-name sub-5%-priced 2028 presidential longshot contracts, does the public hourly price-history show 24 or more consecutive identical price points immediately preceding snapshot — a full day where the displayed price never actually moved?
THE TAPE, EARLY
Every call lands on the public ledger and resolves in the open — that never changes and never costs anything. Subscribers just see it at birth: the thesis and the falsifier the moment they're written, instead of at resolution.
Same tape for everyone on the list — published analysis, never personalized advice, never "what should I bet." Your email goes straight to the list provider; nothing is stored here.